Owasso, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXUS64 KTSA 252341
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

  - Widespread thunderstorm development remains expected this
    evening and into Monday, with highest confidence across the
    southern two-thirds of the forecast area. Heavy rain and
    flooding will remain the primary concern, with severe
    thunderstorm hazards also a threat.

  - Additional showers and thunderstorms, with largely a heavy
    rain and continued flooding threat, are expected through
    Monday with a shift more toward southeast Oklahoma and west
    central Arkansas.

  - Widespread flash flooding and mainstem river flooding
    potential will continue through the rest of the Memorial Day
    holiday weekend. Flood safety messaging will remain a focus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Widespread thunderstorm development remains expected this evening
and overnight, with a focus across the southern half to two-thirds
of the forecast area. Thunderstorms currently ongoing across far
east central Oklahoma and into western Arkansas are elevated, with
mainly a threat for heavy rain and marginally severe hail through
mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms have developed in the past
hour in south central Oklahoma, in the vicinity of a surface front
that extends into southeast Oklahoma. Very moist conditions are
located across that portion of the forecast area with a large area
of mid 70s dew points present, leading to a highly unstable
airmass along and just north of the Red River. This boundary,
which is farther south than some models depict, should continue
to be a focus for development this evening, with all severe
weather hazards possible. There may be some northward movement in
the boundary as the low level jet strengthens aided by some
modest clearing occurring behind the ongoing activity farther
north. However, still think a more southern solution with the
strongest activity this evening remains the most likely one.

Attention is also on the potential for development this afternoon
in West Texas that will eventually congeal into a mature MCS and
move eastward toward mainly southeast Oklahoma into early Monday
morning. A damaging wind threat will likely accompany the MCS as
it moves across far southeast Oklahoma, with the heavy rain threat
extending farther northward.

Given the very heavy rains that have occurred in the past 12 hours
across a swath from Osage County through the Tulsa metro and into
northwest Arkansas will remain the most susceptible part of the
forecast area to rapid onset flash flooding. Unfortunately, a good
portion of this area looks to be within the likely northern
extent of the heaviest rains this evening. Southeast Oklahoma also
remains very saturated from rains over the past week, especially
from northern Pittsburg County eastward into the northern half of
LeFlore County. As a result, this area will also be susceptible to
rapid onset flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

There will likely be a relative lull in the coverage of showers
and thunderstorms during the morning hours on Monday on the heels
of the overnight thunderstorm complex. The next batch of showers
and thunderstorms will be more likely to develop mid to late
afternoon to the west and southwest, moving eastward across the
region through the evening, focused in southeast Oklahoma.
Depending on how this evolves and what happens rainfall wise
tonight, the Flood Watch may need to be extended into Monday night
for southern portions of the region. The severe weather threat
does not look substantial, although it is nonzero.

The pattern will remain fairly active, from a continued isolated
to scattered shower and thunderstorm perspective, mid to late in
the upcoming work week as a result of a stubborn upper low in the
Upper Midwest. Low to medium thunderstorm chances will be timed
with impulses rotating around the southern periphery of the low.
The overall severe thunderstorm threat does not look substantial
given the unseasonably cool conditions and lower dew points.

Warmer conditions should make a return by the weekend, as the
upper low finally shifts eastward and upper level ridging moves
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Poor flying conditions expected across eastern OK and northwest AR
through much of the TAF period. Ongoing thunderstorms will
increase in coverage this evening into the overnight period as
large scale lift approaches. A warm front south of Interstate 40
will continue to focus more concentrated activity across the KMLC
and KFSM TAF sites while there will be a potential for more breaks
in activity across the remainder of the terminals. In between
storms, MVFR ceilings below 2kft are forecast with IFR conditions
becoming prevailing at all sites by 10-12Z. Ceilings will
gradually lift to MVFR as showers move east late Tuesday morning
but highest confidence in this remains across southern most
terminals with a moderate chance that KTUL and KRVS will also
improve by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  72  60  73 /  90  60  70  20
FSM   66  76  65  79 /  90  80  80  30
MLC   66  77  62  77 /  90  70  80  20
BVO   59  70  57  71 /  80  70  70  20
FYV   60  71  60  75 /  80  80  70  40
BYV   59  66  59  73 /  80  80  70  50
MKO   64  74  61  73 /  90  70  80  30
MIO   61  69  60  71 /  70  80  70  30
F10   64  75  61  73 /  90  60  80  20
HHW   67  77  65  79 /  90  80  80  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07